Cognitus, and its Principal Economist Dr Richard Meade, have produced a number of publicly-available publications. These include commissioned studies, reports, working papers, books, book chapters, journal articles and presentations. A selection is provided below.
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Books
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Book chapters
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Journal articles
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Commissioned studies
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Media appearances, presentations and submissions
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Working papers and research monographs
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Covid-related outputs
Books
Alternating Currents or Counter-Revolution? Contemporary Electricity Reform in New Zealand, with L. Evans, Victoria University Press, Wellington, 2005, 346pp. (Download, 8 MB)
Stephen Littlechild, Cambridge University, economic adviser to British energy regulator Ofgem, and former Director General of the British electricity supply (1989 to 1998):
“This must be the most comprehensive, informed and unbiased history of these events, and is greatly to be welcomed.”
Paul Joskow, Elizabeth and James Killian Professor of Economics and Management at MIT, and Director of the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research:
“This is an extremely useful book that provides a comprehensive discussion of the challenges and opportunities associated with electricity sector liberalization. …the New Zealand experience and the lessons learned from it are relevant to electricity sector reforms around the world. The book provides valuable insights for policy makers in all countries.”
Doug Goodwin, Transpower New Zealand Limited:
“‘Alternating Currents...’ is a much needed and incisive review of the NZEM market years. I would like to think that the officials and politicians would adopt the book as compulsory reading.”
Forest Valuation under Carbon Pricing: A Real Options Approach, with Fiuza, G., Lu, A., Boyle, G. and L. Evans, VDM Verlag, 2009, 190pp. (Report Version)
Book Chapters
“Comparison of Long-Term Contracts and Vertical Integration in Decentralised Electricity Markets”, with S. O’Connor, in Competition, Contracts and Electricity Markets: A New Perspective, Glachant, J.-M., Finon, D. and A. De Hauteclocque (eds.), Edward Elgar, 2011. (Working Paper Version)
“Electricity Investment and Security of Supply in Liberalized Electricity Systems”, in Development of Electricity Markets, Series: The European Power Supply Industry, W. Mielczarski (ed.), Technical University of Łódż, 2005. (Working Paper Version)
Journal Articles
"Vaccinating the economy against Covid-19: ex post revenue insurance for firms and households to sustain economic confidence and aggregate demand", New Zealand Economic Papers, DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1877185, published online February 2021. (Version of Record, Accepted Manuscript)
"Is Welfare Higher when Utilities are Owned by Customers instead of Investors? Evidence from Electricity Distribution in New Zealand", with Magnus Söderberg (University of Southern Denmark), Energy Economics, 86, February 2020. (Article link)
"Welfare Costs of Coordinated Infrastructure Investments: The Case of Competing Transport Modes", with Arthur Grimes, New Zealand Economic Papers (Special issue: Advances in Competition and Regulation), 51(2), 2017, 109 - 121, https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2017.1301540. (Final Manuscript Version)
“Structural Separation versus Vertical Integration: Lessons for Telecommunications from Electricity Reforms”, with Bronwyn Howell and Seini O’Connor, Telecommunications Policy, 34(7), August, 2010, 392-403.
“Intra-Country Regulation of Share Markets: Does One Size Fit All?", with Glenn Boyle, European Journal of Law and Economics, 25, 2008, 151-165.
“Valuing the Impact of Climate Change Policies on Forestry”, New Zealand Journal of Forestry, 51(1), May, 2006, 14 – 18.
Journal Articles
Commissioned Studies
Commissioned Studies
Simulating the Welfare Impacts of Improving Access to Māori Medium Education using Logit School Demand, research study commissioned by the national body representing Kura Kaupapa Māori Te Aho Matua, Te Rūnanga Nui o Ngā Kura Kaupapa Māori o Aotearoa, June 2023. (Paper, Slides)
Understanding the Economic Value of Māori Taonga: A Scoping Study, report co-authored with Matt Roskruge and Georgia McLellan (Massey University) and Trinh Li and John McDermott (Motu Economic & Public Policy Research), for Te Puni Kōkiri, the Ministry of Māori Development, November 2022. (Report link)
Achieving a Timely, Efficient, Equitable and Orderly Transition to Net-Zero Emissions for Transport and Heating in New Zealand: Part 1 – Framing the Challenge, discussion paper prepared for Vector Limited, Powerco Limited, and First Gas Limited, November 2021. (Download, Summary Slides)
Review of the Economics Literature on the Pros and Cons of Vertical Integration and Vertical Separation in Electricity Sectors, report commissioned by the Electricity Retailers' Association of New Zealand, October 2021. (Download)
Te Mana o te Wai: Māori Rights and Interests in Freshwater Bodies, report prepared for Kāhui Wai Māori, co-authored with Professor Jacinta Ruru, August 2021. (Download)
Role of Māori in the Transition to a Low-Emissions Economy, discussion document prepared for the Ministry for the Environment, June 2021. (Download)
Identifying Māori interests in a UK/NZ FTA (Mana ki te mana, Rangatira ki te rangatira) - What role for the special contributions made by Māori to the UK?, discussion document prepared with Peter Rice, for Te Taumata, April 2021. (Download)
The Role of Customer-Owned Electricity Distribution Businesses in Accelerating Distributed Renewables Uptake – Implications for Policy and Regulation, report prepared for the Northern Energy Group, April 2021. (Download)
Exploring the Cultural Value of Kapa Haka – the Māori Performing Arts – using a Binomial
Logit and Other Travel Cost Models, research study commissioned by Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga (the National Institute of Research Excellence for Māori Development and
Advancement) at the University of Auckland, December 2021. (Download)
Report prepared for the New Zealand Commerce Commission on Section 36 matters under the Commerce Act, February 2021.
Estimating Demand for Competition Analysis: A Statistical Exploration, and Some Possible Applications, with NZIER, report prepared for the New Zealand Productivity Hub, January 2020. (Download)
Issues Presented by Emerging Technologies for New Zealand Electricity Sector Regulation – A High-Level Overview, summary report commissioned by Vector Limited, September 2019. (Download)
Use and Non-Use Values of Retirement Village and Student Accommodation Residents for Auckland Council Facilities, with Riccardo Scarpa, preliminary study commissioned by Auckland Council, July 2019.
Preparing Electricity Regulation for Disruptive Technologies, Business Models and Players – In the Long-Term Interests of Consumers, independent White Paper commissioned in August 2017 by the Electricity Retailers' Association of New Zealand (ERANZ), August 2018. The views expressed in this paper are those of Cognitus, and not necessarily those of ERANZ or any of its members. (Full Report, Summary Report focusing on Distribution)
Incidence of Emissions Charges and Other Climate Change Policies: Implications for Māori Cost of Living, for the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment & Climate Change Iwi Leaders Group, June 2017. (Download)
New Zealand Fuel Market Financial Performance Study, with New Zealand Institute of Economic Research and Grant Thornton, for the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, May 2017. (Download)
From August 2015 to October 2016, Dr Meade was external Strategy Director on one of the New Zealand Ministry of Transport's key strategy projects, Regulation 2025: The Future of Transport Regulation, exploring how transport should be regulated in 2025, looking forward from then to 2035. This was a futures regulatory project involving scenario modelling, exploring the (de)regulatory implications of possibly disruptive technology changes such as autonomous vehicles, and business models such as transport as a service. (Summary Report)
Ownership of Tertiary Education Institutions, with B. Howell, for the New Zealand Productivity Commission, September 2016. (Download)
GPS User Preferences Exploratory Work, with L. Cheung, examination of how to apply discrete choice demand analysis using existing travel survey data to estimate transport users' willingness to pay for non-price transport attributes, for the New Zealand Ministry of Transport, July 2016. (Download)
Regulation 2025: Spectrum of Regulatory Responses, with L. Evans, research report prepared for the New Zealand Ministry of Transport, surveying regulatory approaches and rationales, September 2015. (Download)
Economics of Social Services, technical appendix prepared for the New Zealand Productivity Commission, providing a microeconomic framework for analysing how best to organise social service delivery, with an emphasis on the theories of incomplete and complete contracting, February 2015. (Download)
Optimal Ownership of an Electricity Lines Business (and Possibly Other Network Infrastructure Assets) in an Urbanising New Zealand Rural Area, for the New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation, October 2010.
Forest and Forest Land Valuation – How to Value Forests and Forest Land to Include Carbon Costs and Benefits, with Fiuza, G. and Lu, A., and the assistance of Boyle, G. and L. Evans, for the New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, August 2008. (Download)
Māori Impacts from the Emissions Trading Scheme: Detailed Analysis and Conclusions, with C. Insley, for the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment, January 2008. (Download)
The Effect of Industry Structure and Institutional Arrangements on Growth and Innovation in the New Zealand Agriculture Sector, with L. Evans, for the New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, August 2007. (Download)
The Role and Significance of Cooperatives in New Zealand Agriculture: A Comparative Institutional Analysis, for the New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, with L. Evans, December 2005. (Download)
Economic Appraisal of Minister of Commerce’s Arguments for Making a Declaration regarding Unlisted under section 36D of the Securities Markets Act 1988, with G. Boyle, for Efficient Market Services Ltd (trading as Unlisted), March 2005. (Download)
Media Appearances, Presentations and Submissions
Covid loan scheme seen as win-win for businesses and Govt, interview with Kate Hawkesby of Newstalk ZB. (Summary and Audio)
“Covid Loans” for Businesses and Households to Insure Revenues and Sustain Economic Confidence, presentation to the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group, Road Passenger Transport Industry – Recovery and Renewal, July 2021. (Slides)
Exploring the Cultural Value of Kapa Haka – the Māori Performing Arts – using a Binomial
Logit and Other Travel Cost Models, presented at the New Zealand Association of Economists 2021 annual conference (Wellington, June 2021), and to the Government Economics Network (Wellington, July 2021).
Factors and Policies Affecting Electric Vehicle Uptake, webinar presented on behalf of Auckland University of Technology to representatives of Indonesian government agency responsible for assessment and application of technology, 17 March 2021. (Slides)
"Would 'COVID loans' be a more affordable and sustainable way to support national economies?", The Conversation, 16 February 2021. (Article Link)
Preparing Electricity Regulation for Disruptive Technologies, Business Models and Players - In the Long-Term Interests of Consumers: Data-Based Disruption, and Regulatory Architecture, presentation to the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) and Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) (webinar, September 2020), New Zealand Electricity Authority (webinar, August 2020), Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC, Sydney, November 2019); Commerce Commission (Wellington, August 2019); and The Treasury/MBIE (Wellington, May 2019). (AER/ACCC Slides, Electricity Authority Slides)
Submission on Our Schooling Futures: Stronger Together (Whiria Ngā Kura Tūātinitini): Report by the Tomorrow’s Schools Independent Taskforce, April 2019. (Download)
Political Economy of New Zealand Water Reform, presentation at the New Zealand Initiative members’ annual retreat, Auckland, March 2019. (Slides)
Submission on ACCC's Preliminary Report of Digital Platforms Inquiry - Economics of
Privacy in the Digital Age, February 2019. (Covering Message, Report)
The Impact of Technology on How and Why We Regulate, presentation at the Legal Research Foundation’s Law and Technology Conference, Auckland, June 2018, focusing on data-based disruption, and the economics of privacy. (Slides)
Big Data as a Competition Issue: The EU Commission’s Approach – More Care Needed? , discussion of keynote address by Timothy Cowen, Preiskel & Co., at 28th annual CLPINZ workshop, Auckland, October 2017. (Discussion Slides)
New Wine in an Old Wineskin? – How Technology Changes affect both How and Why we Regulate, LEANZ presentation at KPMG Wellington, June 2017. (Download)
Using Choice Modelling to Measure Transport User Preferences, presented at the Transport Knowledge Conference 2016: Customer Focused Transport, Wellington, November 2016. (Download)
Infrastructure Investments across Competing Freight Modes: Implications of Upstream and Downstream Cost-Reducing Investments, presented to the Government Economics Network (GEN), at the Ministry of Business, Innovation & Employment (MBIE), Wellington, August 2016.
Should Regulation be Applied by Sector or by Activity?, presentation to the New Zealand Ministry of Transport, Wellington, June 2016.
Risks and Opportunities for Trust Owners facing Emerging Technologies, presented at the ETNZ Autumn Conference, Wellington, May 2016.
Incentives, Efficiency and Quality in Regulated Monopolies under Customer Ownership, presented at the CEA (Vancouver, 2014), EEA (Toulouse, 2014) and EARIE (Milan, 2014) annual conferences, the BPF 3rd PhD Camp at ESCP Europe (Paris, 2014), and at seminars at CERNA (Paris, 2013), CREST (Paris, 2014), and LEANZ (Auckland, 2015).
Ownership Impacts on Cost, Quality and Price in Electricity Distribution: Evidence from New Zealand, presented at the IDEI Energy Markets Workshop (Toulouse, 2014), New Zealand Commerce Commission (Wellington, 2014), and University of Auckland (Auckland, 2015).
U.S. Savings Banks' Demutualization and Depositor Welfare, presented at University of Canterbury seminar (Christchurch, 2015).
Deposit Choice, Customer Heterogeneity, and Ownership: Evidence from US Banking, presented at the TSE Applied Micro Workshop (Toulouse, 2014).
Strategic Forward Overbuying as a Counterstrategy against Raising Rivals’ Costs, presented at seminars at TSE (Toulouse, 2013), Universidad Carlos III Madrid (Madrid, 2013) and University of Auckland (Auckland, 2013), and New Zealand Commerce Commission (Wellington, 2014).
Comparison of Long-Term Contracts and Vertical Integration in Decentralised Electricity Markets, with S. O’Connor, presentation of invited paper, LARSEN/EUI workshop “Efficiency, Competition and Long Term Contracts in Electricity Markets", Florence, 15-16 January 2009.
Demarcating Electricity Sector Regulation and Competition Policy over Time: The Efficiency of Institutional Change, 31st IAEE International Conference, Istanbul, Turkey, June 2008.
The Multinationalisation of New Zealand Agri-Businesses: Drivers, Implications, Issues and Opportunities, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 52nd Annual Conference, Canberra, Australia, 7 February 2008.
Vertical Integration and Market Power in Electricity Markets, with S. Hogan, 30th IAEE Conference, Wellington, New Zealand, 19 February 2007.
Effect of Changes in Regulatory Quality on Electricity Line Investment and Reliability in New Zealand, 29th IAEE International Conference, Potsdam, Germany, June 2006.
Ownership vs. Regulation in Electricity Reform: The Role of Governance, The European Electricity Market EEM-05: Challenge of the Unification, Lodz, Poland, May 2005.
Decentralization and Re-centralization of Electricity Industry Governance in New Zealand, The European Electricity Market EEM-04: Challenge of the Unification, Łódż, Poland, September 2004.
Working Papers and Research Monographs
Simulating the Welfare Impacts of Improving Access to Māori Medium Education using Logit School Demand, research study commissioned by the national body representing Kura Kaupapa Māori Te Aho Matua, Te Rūnanga Nui o Ngā Kura Kaupapa Māori o Aotearoa, June 2023. (Paper, Slides)
Exploring the Cultural Value of Kapa Haka – the Māori Performing Arts – using a Binomial Logit and Other Travel Cost Models, research study commissioned by Ngā Pae o te Māramatanga (the National Institute of Research Excellence for Māori Development and Advancement) at the University of Auckland, December 2021. (Download)
Competitive Implications of Land Tenure Institutions: Using Oligopoly Theory to Estimate the Impacts on Māori of Owner Limits in New Zealand’s Native Lands Acts, June 2021 - revises earlier paper (see below): Competitive Implications of Land Ownership Institutions - Using Oligopoly Theory to Estimate the Impact of the Native Land Act's Ten Owner Rule. (Download)
Competition between Customer- and Investor-Owned Banks with Differentiated Deposit Supply and Loan Demand, June 2021. (Download)
Comparing Apples and Kūmara: Well-Being and Profitability Implications of Māori using Land for Cultural Purposes as well as Commercial, March 2019. (Download)
Measuring Prosumer Welfare: Modelling Household Demand for Distributed Energy Resources and Residual Electricity Supply, March 2019. (Paper, Policy-Oriented Slides)
Micro Foundations for how Firm Ownership by Consumers can affect Consumer Preferences: The Case of Mutual Bank Deposits, February 2019 (revised version). (Download)
Competitive Implications of Land Ownership Institutions - Using Oligopoly Theory to Estimate the Impact of the Native Land Act's Ten Owner Rule, paper prepared as part of brief of evidence for Te Aitanga a Mahaki, June 2018. (Paper, Slides)
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Winner of the 2018 Teece Prize - for the paper deemed to make the best contribution to the study of industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour taking into account the quality of the economic analysis and relevance to New Zealand. (New Zealand Association of Economists 2018 conference, June.)
Welfare-Maximising Investors? - Utility Firm Performance with Heterogeneous Quality Preferences and Endogenous Ownership, with Magnus Söderberg (University of Gothenburg), September 2017. (Download)
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Winner of the 2017 Teece Prize - for the paper deemed to make the best contribution to the study of industrial organisation and/or firm behaviour taking into account the quality of the economic analysis and relevance to New Zealand. (New Zealand Association of Economists 2017 conference, July.)
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Winner of the 2017 New Zealand Economic Policy Prize - for the paper that is deemed to have made the best contribution to analysis of economic policy in or applied to New Zealand. (New Zealand Association of Economists, July.)
U.S. Savings Banks' Demutualization and Depositor Welfare, with Mattia Girotti (Bank of France), Bank of France Working Paper #639, August 2017. (Download)
Incentives, Efficiency and Quality in Regulated Monopolies under Customer Ownership, July 2014. (Download)
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Winner of the best paper in economics, BPF 3rd PhD Camp. (ESCP Europe, 2014)
Strategic Forward Overbuying as a Counterstrategy against Raising Rivals’ Costs, May 2014. (Download)
Vertical Integration vs Vertical Separation in an Imperfectly Competitive Industry, such as Electricity, with Retail, Wholesale and Forward Markets, October 2012. (Download)
The Effects of Vertical Integration, Forward Trading and Competition, on Investment and Welfare, in an Imperfectly Competitive Industry, September 2011. (Download)
The Theory of Public Private Partnerships, research report prepared for Incentives and Regulation course, Toulouse School of Economics, 2011. (Download)
Vertical Integration and Market Power in Electricity Markets, with Seamus Hogan (in memoriam), February 2007. (Download)
Real Options and Transmission Investment: The New Zealand Grid Investment Test, with Glenn Boyle and Graeme Guthrie, February 2006. (Download)
Ownership vs. Regulation in Electricity Reform: The Role of Governance, May 2005. (Download)
Decentralization and Re-Centralization of Electricity Industry Governance in New Zealand, September 2004. (Download)
An Economic Appraisal of Nga Tipu Whakaritorito: A New Governance Model for Maori Collectives, December 2004. (Download)
Economic Analysis of Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) With Specific Reference to the Transpower Proposal for New Zealand, with Lew Evans, September 2001. (Download)
2017 NZAE award being presented by Tim Ng, Deputy Secretary (Chief Economic Adviser), The Treasury. Image courtesy of NZAE.
Covid-Related Outputs
Comments on Dr Meade's proposal for revenue insurance ("covid loans") as a more cost-effective pandemic support measure than wage subsidies, furlough schemes, etc:
"This is very clever and would be an incredibly useful policy tool for the government."
(Dr John McDermott, Executive Director of Motu Economic & Public Policy Research, and former Assistant Governor and Chief Economist at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
"What we need are smart people coming up with new ideas like the Richard Meade idea ..."
(Professor David Blanchflower, Bruce V. Rauner Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College, and former member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee)
Dr Meade makes submission to New Zealand's Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons Learned, highlighting his Covid Loans proposal, modelled on student loans schemes, as a more cost-effective and equitable (and less inflationary) economic support measure than wage subsidies.
Dr Meade interviewed on ABC show The Virus on the economic costs of long covid, first broadcast March 2022. (Video)
"As Omicron Lurks, Hard-Hit Businesses need a New Kind of Support", The Spinoff, 20 December 2021. (Article)
"One Chance to Avoid a Needless Bonfire of Auckland Business", The Spinoff, 21 October 2021. (Article)
Dr Meade's covid loans proposal suggested as possible pandemic support measure for the UK, as part of interview he gave to former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond on the economics of long covid, for RT UK's Alex Salmond Show. (Interview Link, segment also included in the show's 2021 highlights)
Covid Loan Scheme seen as Win-Win for Businesses and Govt, interview with Kate Hawkesby of Newstalk ZB. (Summary and Audio)
"Why governments will have to consider the costs of long COVID when easing pandemic restrictions", The Conversation, 27 July 2021. (Article)
“Covid Loans” for Businesses and Households to Insure Revenues and Sustain Economic Confidence, presentation to the UK All-Party Parliamentary Group, Road Passenger Transport Industry – Recovery and Renewal, July 2021. (Slides)
"We need to prepare our economy for Covid 2.0", NZ Herald, 19 May 2021. (Article)
"Would ‘COVID loans’ be a more affordable and sustainable way to support national economies?", The Conversation, 16 February 2021. (Article)
"Vaccinating the economy against Covid-19: ex post revenue insurance for firms and households to sustain economic confidence and aggregate demand", New Zealand Economic Papers, DOI: 10.1080/00779954.2021.1877185, published online February 2021. (Version of Record, Accepted Manuscript)
Urgency of Effective Financial Support Measures to Reduce COVID19 Transmission and its Economic Impacts, 23 July 2020. (Download)
Limiting COVID’s Economic Fallout –“Student Loans” for both Businesses and Households to Insure Revenues and Sustain Economic Confidence, webinar presentations on 27 May 2020 (LEANZ), 29 June 2020 (Auckland Rotary), 16 July 2020 (Grattan Institute). (Slides (Grattan Institute), Video (LEANZ), commentaries by Arthur Grimes and Michael Reddell)
Panel of Wise Economic Heads Urgently Needed to Assist Government in Charting New Zealand’s COVID-19 Response, 3 May 2020. (Download)
Wage Subsidy Alternative 'Student Loan Style'?, interview with Kathryn Ryan on RNZ National Nine to Noon show, 1 May 2020. (Audio link)
Appraisal of Government’s Latest COVID19 Business Support Measures – Widespread Intensive Care Needed, Not Selective and Piecemeal Treatments, 15 April 2020. (Download)
Keeping the Economy Going in COVID19 Lockdown – A Proposal for "Low Cost" Generalised Insurance of Business and Household Incomes, 3 April 2020. (Download)
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